Power

Here’s How Republicans’ Health-Care Vote Has Already Changed Their Midterm Prospects

The 2018 congressional midterms may look a lot like the 2010 midterms—but in reverse.

Several Republicans up for reelection in 2018 may end up taking the blame for the health-care bill, according to experts. Alex Wong/Getty Images

House Republicans could face a major fallout in 2018 after their rushed vote on Thursday passing an Affordable Care Act (ACA) repeal measure that could strip health care from millions while slashing taxes for the country’s wealthiest people. 

Cook Political Report changed its ratings for 20 midterm races in the U.S. House of Representatives on Friday, reflecting potential gains for Democrats in 2018. The independent, non-partisan newsletter offers ratings for each race determining whether the seat is competitive and if one party has an advantage.

David Wasserman, an editor for Cook Political Report, tied the changes to Republican’s passage of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) in an article explaining the ratings. “Although it’s the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave,” he said.

“Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received another valuable candidate recruitment tool,” Wasserman wrote. “In fact, Democrats aren’t so much recruiting candidates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no political record for the GOP to attack—almost a mirror image of 2010.”

Republicans won their House majority in 2010 based on a surge of support for so-called Tea Party candidates and a backlash to President Obama’s health-care reform law.

There are 18 months until the election, Wasserman noted, and these ratings are subject to change, but he called the AHCA vote “an unequivocal political risk” for several Republicans who may end up taking the blame for the bill, “much as 17 of the 30 Democrats who took a pass on the ACA and then ran for reelection ended up losing in 2010.”

The districts of Republican Reps. Steve Knight (CA), Mike Coffman (CO), and Jason Lewis (MN) went from leaning Republican to a “toss up,” according to the report. Another 11 seats moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Polling data shows Trump voters “have the most to lose under the Republican’s health care bill,” according to FiveThirtyEight.

The AHCA jeopardizes essential health benefits and funding for Planned Parenthood. An earlier version of the bill would have increased the number of uninsured people in the country by 24 million over the next nine years.

The GOP pushed through a vote on the latest version of the repeal before a new impact assessment could be scored by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.