Power

Ernst Appears Primed to Win Iowa’s U.S. Senate Race

Iowa State Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Red Oak) appears poised to win her bid for U.S. Senate, despite a rash of controversial comments that betrayed her hard-right stances on almost every major political issue.

Iowa State Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Red Oak) appears poised to win her bid for U.S. Senate, despite a rash of controversial comments that betrayed her hard-right stances on almost every major political issue. Joni Earnst/Youtube

Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Red Oak) appears poised to win her bid for U.S. Senate, despite a rash of controversial comments that betrayed her hard-right stances on almost every major political issue.

Ernst was a dead heat with U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley throughout much of the summer and fall, but the arch-conservative Ernst has taken significant leads in recent polls and elections prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight.com are giving Ernst a 72 percent chance of winning.

FiveThirtyEight.com in March predicted that Democrats had a 75 percent chance of holding the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D), a legislative leader in questioning the federal government’s financial support for for-profit colleges.

Ernst would be the first woman elected to federal office from Iowa, leaving Mississippi as the only state never to elect a woman. Ernst would also be the first woman veteran to serve in the U.S. Senate. If she is elected, joining Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), it would be the first time since 1984 that both Iowa senators would be Republicans.

One of Ernst’s campaign ads went viral early in the Republican primary. While it raised eyebrows nationally, it helped propel her ahead of a crowded field of primary candidates. Ernst, during the course of the Republican primary campaign, became a national figure for staking out far-right positions on a range of issues, and using rhetoric that appeals to the the most conservative parts of the Republican base.

Ernst’s support for “personhood” legislation, which would grant full legal protections to an embryo from the moment of conception, was a campaign issue. Ernst, after backtracking on the issue, changed course and forcefully supported the position during an interview with the Sioux City Journal editorial board.

It was reported that Ernst asserted her support for gun rights in 2012 by stating she believes in the right to “defend myself and my family—whether it’s from an intruder, or whether it’s from the government, should they decide that my rights are no longer important.”

Ernst credited her connections to the Koch brother’s network of political action committees and non-profits for helping launch her political career. The Koch-funded group Americans for Prosperity has spent $500,000 in attack ads targeting her opponent.

However, the Senate Majority PAC—a super PAC that supports Democratic candidates—has spent more than $4.8 million targeting Ernst with negative ads.

While Ernst replaced her hard edged primary campaign rhetoric with the charm of “Iowa nice,” Braley has made statements that haven’t made him any friends in the state’s farming community. Braley characterized the state’s popular Sen. Grassley as “a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school” while he was at a fundraiser in Texas.

Harkin didn’t make things any easier on his Democratic colleague. Harkin made patronizing and sexist remarks about Ernst. “She is really attractive, and she sounds nice,” Harkin said. “I don’t care if she’s as good looking as Taylor Swift or as nice as Mr. Rogers, but if she votes like Michele Bachmann, she’s wrong for the state of Iowa.”

Ernsts tweeted that she was “gonna shake it off.” Harkin has since apologized for the remark.

In a state that President Obama won easily in both 2008 and 2012, Democrats are pouring an enormous amount of resources into a campaign that polling analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com predict will be a “key” factor in determining if the Republicans can gain control of the U.S. Senate.

Political observers in the state are saying that all the signs point to Ernst coming out ahead on Tuesday night. “This race looks like it’s decided,” pollster J. Ann Selzer told the Des Moines Register. “That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that.”