By including questions about abortion on Republican exit polls, but not Democratic ones, pollsters guarantee the media pays attention to how conservative, anti-choice voters feel about the issue, while overlooking the majority of Americans' support for broad access to abortion and contraception.
What are exit polls for? When responsibly analyzed, final exit poll results-not the early, leaked numbers that so often misrepresent outcomes-are most helpful in determining not who won an election, but what types of voters supported which candidates.
Exit polls have identified Hillary Clinton’s strong showing among women, highly educated voters’ affinity for Barack Obama, and confirmed evangelicals’ affection for Mike Huckabee. They’ve also shed light on peculiarities such as John McCain’s support among pro-choice Republicans, even in Florida, when the nominally pro-choice Rudy Giuliani was still in the race. Over 40 percent of Sunshine State GOP voters believe abortion should be legal, and McCain won more of their votes than any other candidate in the race. Those folks need a political reality check; McCain’s opposition to Roe v. Wade is increasingly vociferous.
But what’s usually ignored is that Democratic and Republican exit polls are quite different. Only Republican exit polls ask voters if they identify as “evangelical,” for example, obscuring the fact that up to one-third of self-described evangelical Christians actually vote Democratic, regardless of the party’s support for abortion rights and LGBT civil rights. And while Republican exit polls typically ask several questions about abortion, Democratic exit polls don’t quiz voters about abortion at all.
Yep, you heard that right. The domestic “culture war” issue most identified as a “wedge” is totally absent from Democratic exit polling.
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That’s because the National Election Pool-the exit polling collective made up of the Associated Press, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, and Fox-isn’t concerned with polling issue preferences when major candidates actually agree with one another. Indeed, Clinton and Obama have virtually indistinguishable platforms on reproductive health, despite Clinton’s longer record advocating on the issue, and all the hang-wringing over Obama’s “present” votes on abortion during his time in the Illinois State Senate.
For reproductive health advocates and pro-choice voters, that’s a good thing. Both Democratic candidates have pledged to appoint pro-Roe justices to the Supreme Court, overturn the Hyde Amendment (which prevents Medicaid from paying for abortions for low-income women), protect access to contraception, and promote comprehensive sexuality education in public schools. And both Clinton and Obama support abortion and contraception rights alongside a broader parenting agenda, in which the federal government would support mothers and fathers with broadened family and medical leave rights, affordable child care, and better schools.
In other words, Clinton and Obama get it.
So some reproductive health advocates might argue that leaving abortion out of Democratic exit polls is helpful to the cause, since it clamps down on potentially divisive media coverage of abortion around election time. But in actuality, by including questions about abortion on Republican exit polls, but not Democratic ones, pollsters have guaranteed that the media pays extra attention to how conservative, anti-choice voters feel about the issue, while largely overlooking the majority of Americans’ support for broad access to abortion and contraception.
In the wake of this past weekend’s primary in Louisiana, for example (the only weekend primary to be exit polled), the anti-choice website LifeNews was able to report that three-quarters of Louisiana Republicans oppose abortion rights. And as Huckabee carried Louisiana and Kansas, the media had the exit poll numbers to back up yet another round of stories about his support among social conservative voters. That kept the preferences of anti-choicers in the headlines.
In the meantime, there were no equivalent exit poll statistics on pro-choice voters. Those numbers, if they existed, would likely show strong support across the Democratic electorate for reproductive rights — after all, in some states, over half of Republicans are pro-choice! Consider this: Although 70 percent of Americans support abortion rights in the case of rape or incest, Mike Huckabee doesn’t — and yet it’s Huckabee’s supporters whose abortion position is covered by the media. And in 2004’s general election, well over half of all voters told pollsters abortion should be legal. Yet during the primaries, the partisan discrepancy in exit polling on abortion completely obscures Americans’ relative moderation on the issue.
The fact that abortion is a settled issue in the Democratic primary-at least this year-doesn’t meant that polling should ignore progressive voters’ preferences on the issue. Indeed, exit polls should ask voters not only about abortion, but about some of the other reproductive health issues that will starkly split the candidates during the general election, such as sex-ed and access to birth control. That would ensure that the public and media have a realistic view of Americans’ support for reproductive rights.
The Clinton campaign announced Friday that Sen. Tim Kaine (R-VA) has been selected to join Hillary Clinton’s ticket as her vice presidential candidate.
“I’m thrilled to announce my running mate, @TimKaine, a man who’s devoted his life to fighting for others,” said Clinton in a tweet.
“.@TimKaine is a relentless optimist who believes no problem is unsolvable if you put in the work to solve it,” she added.
The prospect of Kaine’s selection has been criticized by some progressives due to his stances on issues including abortion as well as bank and trade regulation.
Kaine signed two letters this week calling for the regulations on banks to be eased, according to a Wednesday report published by the Huffington Post, thereby ”setting himself up as a figure willing to do battle with the progressive wing of the party.”
Charles Chamberlain, executive director of the progressive political action committee Democracy for America, told the New York Times that Kaine’s selection “could be disastrous for our efforts to defeat Donald Trump in the fall” given the senator’s apparent support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Just before Clinton’s campaign made the official announcement that Kaine had been selected, the senator praised the TPP during an interview with the Intercept, though he signaled he had ultimately not decided how he would vote on the matter.
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Kaine’s record on reproductive rights has also generated controversy as news began to circulate that he was being considered to join Clinton’s ticket. Though Kaine recently argued in favor of providing Planned Parenthood with access to funding to fight the Zika virus and signed on as a co-sponsor of the Women’s Health Protection Act—which would prohibit states and the federal government from enacting restrictions on abortion that aren’t applied to comparable medical services—he has also been vocal about his personal opposition to abortion.
In a June interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Kaine told host Chuck Todd he was “personally” opposed to abortion. He went on, however, to affirm that he still believed “not just as a matter of politics, but even as a matter of morality, that matters about reproduction and intimacy and relationships and contraception are in the personal realm. They’re moral decisions for individuals to make for themselves. And the last thing we need is government intruding into those personal decisions.”
As Rewire has previously reported, though Kaine may have a 100 percent rating for his time in the Senate from Planned Parenthood Action Fund, the campaign website for his 2005 run for governor of Virginia promised he would “work in good faith to reduce abortions” by enforcing Virginia’s “restrictions on abortion and passing an enforceable ban on partial birth abortion that protects the life and health of the mother.”
As governor, Kaine did support some existing restrictions on abortion, including Virginia’s parental consent law and a so-called informed consent law. He also signed a 2009 measure that created “Choose Life” license plates in the state, and gave a percentage of the proceeds to a crisis pregnancy network.
Regardless of Clinton’s vice president pick, the “center of gravity in the Democratic Party has shifted in a bold, populist, progressive direction,” said Stephanie Taylor, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, in an emailed statement. “It’s now more important than ever that Hillary Clinton run an aggressive campaign on core economic ideas like expanding Social Security, debt-free college, Wall Street reform, and yes, stopping the TPP. It’s the best way to unite the Democratic Party, and stop Republicans from winning over swing voters on bread-and-butter issues.”
Republicans came together in Cleveland this week to nominate Donald Trump at the Republican National Convention (RNC), generating days of cringe-inducing falsehoods and misleading statements on crime, the nominee’s positions on gender equality, and LGBTQ people.
Trump’s Acceptance Speech Blasted for Making False Claims on Crime
Trump accepted the Republican nomination in a Thursday night speech at the RNC that drew harsh criticism for many of its misleading and outright false talking points.
Among the most hotly contested of Trump’s claims was the assertion that crime has exploded across the country.
“Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration’s rollback of criminal enforcement,” Trump claimed, according to his prepared remarks, which were leaked ahead of his address. “Homicides last year increased by 17 percent in America’s 50 largest cities. That’s the largest increase in 25 years. In our nation’s capital, killings have risen by 50 percent. They are up nearly 60 percent in nearby Baltimore.”
Crime rates overall have been steadily declining for years.
“In 2015, there was an uptick in homicides in 36 of the 50 largest cities compared to the previous years. The rate did, indeed, increase nearly 17 percent, and it was the worst annual change since 1990. The homicide rate was up 54.3 percent in Washington, and 58.5 percent in Baltimore,” explained Washington Post fact checkers Glenn Kessler and Michelle Ye Hee Lee. “But in the first months of 2016, homicide trends were about evenly split in the major cities. Out of 63 agencies reporting to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, 32 cities saw a decrease in homicides in first quarter 2016 and 31 saw an increase.”
Ames Grawert, a counsel in the Brennan Center’s Justice Program, said in a statement posted to the organization’s website that 2016 statistics aren’t sufficient in declaring crime rate trends.
“Overall, crime rates remain at historic lows. Fear-inducing soundbites are counterproductive, and distract from nuanced, data-driven, and solution-oriented conversations on how to build a smarter criminal justice system in America,” Grawert said. “It’s true that some cities saw an increase in murder rates last year, and that can’t be ignored, but it’s too early to say if that’s part of a national trend.”
When Paul Manafort, Trump’s campaign chairman, was confronted with the common Republican falsehoods on crime during a Thursday interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, he claimed that the FBI’s statistics were not to be trusted given that the organization recently advised against charges in connection with Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server during her tenure as secretary of state.
“According to FBI statistics, crime rates have been going down for decades,” Tapper told Manafort. “How can Republicans make the argument that it’s somehow more dangerous today when the facts don’t back that up?”
“People don’t feel safe in their neighborhoods,” said Manafort, going on to claim that “the FBI is certainly suspect these days after what they did with Hillary Clinton.”
There was at least one notable figure who wholeheartedly embraced Trump’s fearmongering: former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke. “Great Trump Speech,” tweeted Duke on Thursday evening. “Couldn’t have said it better!”
Ben Carson Claims Transgender People Are Proof of “How Absurd We Have Become”
Former Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson criticized the existence of transgender people while speaking at the Florida delegation breakfast on Tuesday in Cleveland.
“You know, we look at this whole transgender thing, I’ve got to tell you: For thousands of years, mankind has known what a man is and what a woman is. And now, all of a sudden we don’t know anymore,” said Carson, a retired neurosurgeon. “Now, is that the height of absurdity? Because today you feel like a woman, even though everything about you genetically says that you’re a man or vice versa?”
“Wouldn’t that be the same as if you woke up tomorrow morning after seeing a movie about Afghanistan or reading some books and said, ‘You know what? I’m Afghanistan. Look, I know I don’t look that way. My ancestors came from Sweden, or something, I don’t know. But I really am. And if you say I’m not, you’re a racist,’” Carson said. “This is how absurd we have become.”
When confronted with his comments during an interview with Yahoo News’ Katie Couric, Carson doubled down on his claims.“There are biological markers that tell us whether we are a male or a female,” said Carson. “And just because you wake up one day and you say, ‘I think I’m the other one,’ that doesn’t change it. Just, a leopard can’t change its spots.”
“It’s not as if they woke up one day and decided, ‘I’m going to be a male or I’m going to be a female,’” Couric countered, pointing out that transgender people do not suddenly choose to change their gender identities on a whim.
Carson made several similar comments last year while on the campaign trail.
In December, Carson criticized the suggested that allowing transgender people into the military amounted to using the armed services “as a laboratory for social experimentation.”
Carson once suggested that allowing transgender people to use the restroom that aligned with their gender identity amounted to granting them “extra rights.”
Ivanka Trump Claims Her Father Supports Equal Pay, Access to Child Care
Ivanka Trump, the nominee’s daughter, made a pitch during her speech Thursday night at the RNC for why women voters should support her father.
“There have always been men of all background and ethnicities on my father’s job sites. And long before it was commonplace, you also saw women,” Ivanka Trump said. “At my father’s company, there are more female than male executives. Women are paid equally for the work that we do and when a woman becomes a mother, she is supported, not shut out.”
“As president, my father will change the labor laws that were put into place at a time when women were not a significant portion of the workforce. And he will focus on making quality child care affordable and accessible for all,” she continued before pivoting to address the gender wage gap.
“Policies that allow women with children to thrive should not be novelties; they should be the norm. Politicians talk about wage equality, but my father has made it a practice at his company throughout his entire career.”
However, Trump’s stated positions on the gender wage gap, pregnancy and mothers in the workplace, and child care don’t quite add up to the picture the Trumps tried to paint at the RNC.
In 2004, Trump called pregnancy an “inconvenience” for employers. When a lawyer asked for a break during a deposition in 2011 to pump breast milk, Trump reportedly called her “disgusting.”
According to a June analysis conducted by the Boston Globe, the Trump campaign found that men who worked on Trump’s campaign “made nearly $6,100, or about 35 percent more [than women during the April payroll]. The disparity is slightly greater than the gender pay gap nationally.”
When Trump was questioned about equal pay during a campaign stop last October, he did not outline his support for policies to address the issue. Instead, Trump suggested that, “You’re gonna make the same if you do as good a job.” Though he had previously stated that men and women who do the same job should be paid the same during an August 2015 interview on MSNBC, he also cautioned that determining whether people were doing the same jobs was “tricky.”
Ivanka’s claims were not the only attempt that night by Trump’s inner circle to explain why women voters should turn to the Republican ticket. During an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, Manafort said that women would vote for the Republican nominee because they “can’t afford their lives anymore.”
“Many women in this country feel they can’t afford their lives, their husbands can’t afford to be paying for the family bills,” claimed Manafort. “Hillary Clinton is guilty of being part of the establishment that created that problem. They’re going to hear the message. And as they hear the message, that’s how we are going to appeal to them.”
What Else We’re Reading
Vox’s Dara Lind explained how “Trump’s RNC speech turned his white supporters’ fear into a weapon.”
Now that Mike Pence is the Republican nominee for vice president, Indiana Republicans have faced “an intense, chaotic, awkward week of brazen lobbying at the breakfast buffet, in the hallways and on the elevators” at the convention as they grapple with who will run to replace the state’s governor, according to the New York Times.
“This is a party and a power structure that feels threatened with extinction, willing to do anything for survival,” wrote Rebecca Traister on Trump and the RNC for New York Magazine. “They may not love Trump, but he is leading them precisely because he embodies their grotesque dreams of the restoration of white, patriarchal power.”
Though Trump spent much of the primary season denouncing big money in politics, while at the RNC, he courted billionaires in hopes of having them donate to supporting super PACs.
Michael Kranish reported for the Washington Post that of the 2,472 delegates at the RNC, it is estimated that only 18 were Black.